Systemic vulnerability of socio-economic metabolism in territories

Concept of metabolic vulnerability

The concept of 'metabolic vulnerability', recently introduced by (Bahers et al., 2019), extends the concept of 'environmental vulnerability'. While the work referring to environmental vulnerability (Mathis et al., 2016) focuses on questioning the dispositions of a society to be prepared to withstand a sudden change in its environment, metabolic vulnerability focuses on the extension of these disruptive changes in the analysis of the flow of resources, through their extraction, production and end-of-life as waste, between territories of consumption and territories of supply and disposal. In short, the functioning of society is based on flows of matter and energy (the 'metabolism') and it is important to understand how these flows work. To characterise vulnerability, reference can be made to the analytical framework of [Turner2003] (the intersection between exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity) which can be crossed with that of (Füssel, 2007) (what is the system under study? At what temporal scale? At what organisational scales?)

Objectives of the thesis

The objective of this thesis is to design and test computer-supported participatory processes, at least initially fictitious, involving the following three phases:
i. Co-construction of one or more socio-technical alternatives of a given territory by respecting the biophysical constraints imposed,
ii. Multi-criteria evaluation of the alternative(s) and their vulnerabilities,
iii. Deliberation and iteration on the previous phases.

The main goal is not immediately the realism of the underlying quantitative models but rather the mechanics involved (exploration of possibilities to build the alternative, highlighting of compromises, evaluation of alternatives, collective deliberation). The "evaluation" part will include: (i) the directly calculable question of environmental sustainability (ii) a qualitative or semi-quantitative phase of questioning the vulnerability of the system described (tests of exogenous shocks, etc.), as well as the reconfiguration of power games between participants.

From an operational point of view, the aim will be to build a demonstrative tool for modelling systemic modelling of the biophysical capacities of a territory. Initially, priority will be given to width, i.e. by modelling, roughly but in their entirety, all the sectors and resources sectors and all the resources necessary for human activities in the territory. In a second phase, each sector will be time, each sector will be modelled more and more precisely according to the data available for the the targeted territories.

This modelling tool will use an approach based on material flow analyses (MFA) for each production/consumption pathway. The approach will also make use of IPD's COOPLAN participatory planning methodology which allows a large number of heterogeneous actions to be combined in a very robust way and adapted to all participants in cross-sectoral and multi-scale strategies

The first experimental phase will include a pragmatic verification of the conditions of appropriation and collective use in a group of actors. In a second phase, the tool will have to provide a scaling mechanism allowing to to design decision-making tools for modelling and simulation based on real data. To be easily manipulated, the simulation tools use simplified quantity scales (from 1 to 5 units) whereas real data are much more complex and use various units. Finally, the tool will be parameterisable in real time in order to accompany the maturation of the feasibility of the scenarios developed during a participatory process involving the stakeholders of a given territory.

A process-impact evaluation protocol will be proposed on the basis of the achievements of the
ENCORE methodologies. The experimentation will focus not only on the emergence and relevance of alternatives, but also on their appropriation and the social impacts on the participants.

Bibliography

Bahers, J. B., Perez, J., & Durand, M. (2019). Vulnérabilité métabolique et potentialités des milieux insulaires. Le cas de l’île de Ndzuwani (Anjouan), archipel des Comores. Flux, (2), 128-146.

Füssel, HM. (2007) Vulnerability: A generally applicable conceptual framework for climate change research. Global Environmental Change, 17(2):155-167. doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2006.05.002

Mathis C-F., Frioux S., Dagenais M., Walter F., (2016). Vulnérabilités environnementales : perspectives historiques. VertigO, 16(3). https://id.erudit.org/iderudit/1039973ar